Porter's finances: healthy or dire?
Bill,
You are being selective with the information that you are conveying.
With regards to the Globe and Mail article that your referenced:
-The
two investors that want out are basically venture capitalist firms that
are in to provide start up money and then they want to cash out at a
profit to show a return for their investors. In short they are in for a
good time not a long time. Onex is a firm for example that takes
investments in firms and then starts to sell off pieces of it when they
feel they can generate a financial return. Thus if they are seeking to
get their money out it is a good sign, not a bad sign. Otherwise they
would just dump their shares for cents on the dollar. Following your
line of thought Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment is in financial
problems because the Ontario Teachers pension plan wants to sell their
66% position.
2) The same article that your referenced has
indicated that Porter's traffic has surged 87.7% last year and its load
factor has increased 6.3%, which brings it to a break even level.
I
would like to add that you look at the peak period of flights and
compare it to the low period. Airlines are a seasonal industry, thus
their traffic goes up and down. If you were to compare a current month
to the equivalent month to the year before you will always see growth,
as well you will see growth year over year when you compare the current
year to date to the previous one. In short, you are picking and choosing
numbers to make a point. By way of comparison, if you were to look at
Air Canada's numbers from their 2009 annual report you will note the
following:
a) full year loss of $316m
b) Revenue per seat mile down 5.2%
c) Adjusted debt is $1.5B
d) Working capital -$468B
e) Free cash flow -$52M
Following your line of thought the bailiffs are waiting at the door of Air Canada.
As
well you keep emphasizing the discounts, my point remains every airline
discounts their pricing. My question remains, how many seats do they
sell at the discounted rate? I am not privy to their books, but if I
were a betting man, a relatively small percentage. Have you ever
considered that their approach of advertising a discounted rate is part
of their marketing approach, to entice people to buy. If all of their
seats are selling at a discount, then it effectively means that the real
price is 20 or 30 percent lower than their published rate.
Bill
my friend people like to buy at a discount. If you really want to make a
point that Porter is a failure, you should compare it against other
airlines and track seasonality, and compare their respective break even
levels. Air Canada needs a higher load level to break even than Porter.
It is not fair to say that Air Canada is in better shape because they
have a higher load rate.
Back to you Bill
Rob

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