A different view of Porter's numbers


I guess what I want to point out here is that 98.8 and 98.3 is not a huge difference. Especially when taking in to account that November has 30 days and October has 31 days. October shows an average of 3.18 million ASMS a day Vs 3.27 million ASMS a day in November.

What your numbers do hide is that the number of people flying porter is up hugely year over year - and as you do diligently record overflys, you would know that capacity is up 30% year over year.

As for August - Its a busier travel month. Take WestJet for Example they flew 1.65 billion ASMs in November, down from 1.74 Billion ASMs in August. A decrease of Just over 5 %.

November is a slower travel month, airlines fly fewer seats - all of them. By your math the only logical conclusion to draw is that Westjet is somehow also failing - but it is a fact that this is not the case.

The story is the load factor at Porter was 55% - They broke even at around 51% in the 4th quarter of last year based on the same prospectus document you use to get the information of their accumulated losses.

The real point I am trying to make is its not airline industry standard to do math the way you are doing it. And as nobody will dispute - Westjet is highly successful - and they too have a very similar pattern.

Adam
 

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