Porter Airlines today released its November load data.

They reveal that Porter’s been reducing its capacity – from a peak of 99.7 million “seat miles”, in August, 2010, to 98.3 million in November, itself down from 98.8 million the month before.

And the number of seat-miles Porter sold (revenue passenger miles) has also declined: from 63.7 million in August, 2010, to just 53.1 million in November. – a decline of 16.6%.

Last year’s data, by comparison, show steady growth in revenue passenger miles, from August to November, of 23% (31.0 to 38.4 million).

“This gives us some understanding of why we’re seeing very frequent 20% discounts on Porter’s fares – for a period in November, they were even up to 30%.” said Brian Iler, Chair of CommunityAIR. “Clearly, Porter’s having a heck of a struggle selling seats. That suggests its anticipated demand for travel out of the Island Airport is not materializing.”

“We’ve always wondered how the smallish downtown market served by the Island Airport, coupled with a noisy turboprop operation, could support a viable airline. Particularly given the history – both City Express and Air Canada failed to generate enough of a market there in the past.

“Now we know – the data point to a very similar struggle for Porter.

“But it would be very helpful for Porter to offer more candour, we’d suggest. Income earned on those passenger miles, and expenses occurred, will assist both the travelling public and policy‑makers in assessing just how long that airport will be active.” Iler added. 

The last available financial information, from Porter’s failed IPO last spring, (first quarter 2010) revealed that Porter ‘s been a serious money loser since it was founded: $11,486,000 net losses in 2007, $3,317,000 in 2008, $4,609,000 in 2009 and $5,972,000 in the first three months of 2010.  Porter’s break‑even load factor jumped to 54.6% for that first quarter – discounting prices, expenses being constant, can only cause the break‑even load factor to increase.

By March 31 of this year Porter had accumulated losses of $44,505,000.

“There’s another troubling aspect to this: the Toronto Port Authority, a public agency, plans to borrow at least $48 million to build a tunnel to facilitate the expansion of the Island Airport. It can only repay that loan from fees paid by passengers using the Island Airport. The assumption that a successful airline operation will actually be there to fund that debt is increasingly suspect. If that assumption proves wrong, the taxpayer will certainly be on the hook for a white elephant tunnel, to match the TPA’s other publicly‑funded white elephant, the Rochester ferry terminal.” concluded Iler.