Air Canada's loss not a surprise, but where's Porter's market?

CommunityAir Press Release of July 22, 2010:

Air Canada lost its court battle with Porter over slot allocations at the Island Airport today.
“This is not a surprise.” said Brian Iler, Chair of CommunityAIR. “It confirms what we
know too well - that the Toronto Port Authority wields too much arbitrary power. It has no
accountability to anyone other than the Harper government.”
“And the Harper government is very friendly with Porter: all but four of Porter’s 20 aircraft
were financed with below-market loans from the Export Development Corporation, another
federal government agency.”
“But it is becoming very apparent that the Island Airport isn’t much of a prize anyway.
Porter struggles to fill even half of its seats, according to its failed initial public offering last
spring. Now, CommunityAIR research shows that Porter’s unable to use the slots it already
has.”
Not counting cancellations, total Porter return flights from the Island Airport to all
destinations were 826, 817, 816 for the first three weeks in May. Those weeks and a few
subsequent ones showed regular cancellations to Ottawa and Montreal. But about four
weeks ago, flights to Ottawa and Montreal were being reduced, total flights over the last two
weeks have stabilized at 704, and cancellations dropped off.
The recently released figures for cross-border Porter flights from the Island Airport tell the
same story:

BOSTON
Date: Dec 2009   Jan 2010
Load: 39.66%     28.07%

CHICAGO
Date: Jan 2009   Dec 2009   Jan 2010
Load: 14.81%     31.89%     21.95%

NEWARK
Date: Jan 2009   Dec 2009   Jan 2010
Load: 29.74%     50.30%     44.16%

No airline makes money flying less than half- full.
Porter’s reach has exceeded its grasp – the business it thought existed out of the Island
Airport just isn’t. So Porter’s planes sit on the ground more often, and, on the basis of what
we know to date, those that do fly continue to fly more than half-empty.
And that’s with almost constant 20% off advertising campaigns.
Can Porter’s demise really be that far off?
 

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