Runways and fixed links: theory vs. practice
Joe,
Thank you for your straightforward analysis that shows it possible for buses with island residents and visitors to cross the island airport runways with 212 daily commercial flights. However, it reminds me of one of Yogi Berra’s observations: In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; In practice, there is.
First, I believe that one of your posts mentioned that you were an air traffic controller at the island airport. If this is the case, you may recall that the vehicles that accessed the other parts of the island from the airport travelled via Taxiway C across Taxiway D, Runway 08/26 and Runway 15/33. Runways 08/26 and 15/33 are each 45 metres wide (Sypher-Meuller P. 9). Therefore, the 100 foot runway width that you used in your calculation becomes 295 feet, without including Taxiways C and D.
Your calculations and considerations may have overlooked some logistics as well. Please consider the following. All flight information is actual and based on a snapshot of Porter flights on Monday, March 22. The ferry times are from the same day.
Boat traffic to and from the island in the winter is like all commutes, designed to get school children to the island and islanders to the city to their jobs and school. Consistency in timing is important; otherwise, people will be late for work and school. Similarly, timing is vital for Porter Airlines which has aimed its service at the time-sensitive business person. In both cases, it is important that all people involved not be delayed. Does your calculation involve the possibility of delays?
Your calculation is based on averages: 212 flights over a full operational day. Reality as the March 22 snapshot shows is somewhat different. First, it doesn’t account for the two daily rush-hour schedules: morning and evening.
The Ward’s Island ferries begin operating at 6:35 a.m. and run every half-hour until 9:20 a.m. from and to the city carrying the majority of commuters. Vehicles often travel on these boats as well. The evening rush hour boats operate from 4 p.m. to 7:15 p.m. and carry even more vehicles. The numbers of passengers on several of the boats in each rush hour necessitate two buses, not one. Therefore, rather than a single bus crossing one runway as you have calculated, reality, or practice as Mr. Berra observed, calls for at least two buses and service vehicles, more along the lines of a small convoy crossing two runways during the busiest times of the day.
These are the busiest times of the day for the airport as well. The March 22 snapshot of Porter flights shows 43 of the 94 daily departures and landings, or 45%, operating during the two rush hour periods on Runway 08/26. Currently, that works out to 43 flights in 6 hours. With an extra 118 flights (212 projected – 94 current) a likely number is 95 (45% of 212). If we assume that each take-off and landing is spaced evenly, then each crossing, whether a single bus or small convoy, has 3 minutes and 47 seconds to get across 90 metres of runways, at least mathematically. These figures do not include Runway 15/33 which may or may not accommodate private business commuter planes between Porter flights and Taxiway D.
Again, reality is something else. Go to Porter’s flight status page www.flyporter.com/fly2/Travel/FlightStatus?culture=en-CA and chart the current arrival and departure times. You will find flights booked for the same landing or take-off times: POE 405, POE 509 and POE 248 all at 09:00. There are 13 such instance on March 22. Look at the website at the end of the operational day and you will find discrepancies as to scheduled and actual times of departures and arrivals. In other words, planes come as best they can to a fixed schedule but with no guarantees. Add the vagaries of island winter weather and you will find that the 3 minutes and 47 seconds allowed to cross the two runways does not exist. Reality, not a mathematical model, rules in the real world.
At the risk of sounding alarmist, I will add one more factor to the equation: a busload of school children. These are kids who live in the waterfront condos and further afield. In many cases, their parents are well-placed, articulate people who have status and influence. To believe they will acquiesce to having their children bussed across busy runways twice daily is to be naive. Furthermore, I have no idea of the cost of liability insurance for a risk like this if indeed an insurer would offer such coverage. As well, I’d be surprise if a board of directors, even the TPA board of directors, would sanction such an operation.
Joe, if you can take these logistical considerations into account and find a non-mathematical way of reviving the dead horse that CAIR has prematurely declared DOA, I will be the first to examine it.
On your second point, the comparison of Toronto Islands and PEI with regards to fixed links, I’m not sure how to answer it. I’m not aware of any studies that show one way or another if PEI residents feel their island has lost its charm or uniqueness or if they now feel like mainlanders. You state that it is unlikely they do. I would be interested to read any reports upon which you base your opinion. Please direct me to them.
Finally, as for your position that under certain circumstances the only argument against a tunnel is a philosophical one, I shall comment on your observations in a subsequent posting.
Bob Kotyk
Thank you for your straightforward analysis that shows it possible for buses with island residents and visitors to cross the island airport runways with 212 daily commercial flights. However, it reminds me of one of Yogi Berra’s observations: In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; In practice, there is.
First, I believe that one of your posts mentioned that you were an air traffic controller at the island airport. If this is the case, you may recall that the vehicles that accessed the other parts of the island from the airport travelled via Taxiway C across Taxiway D, Runway 08/26 and Runway 15/33. Runways 08/26 and 15/33 are each 45 metres wide (Sypher-Meuller P. 9). Therefore, the 100 foot runway width that you used in your calculation becomes 295 feet, without including Taxiways C and D.
Your calculations and considerations may have overlooked some logistics as well. Please consider the following. All flight information is actual and based on a snapshot of Porter flights on Monday, March 22. The ferry times are from the same day.
Boat traffic to and from the island in the winter is like all commutes, designed to get school children to the island and islanders to the city to their jobs and school. Consistency in timing is important; otherwise, people will be late for work and school. Similarly, timing is vital for Porter Airlines which has aimed its service at the time-sensitive business person. In both cases, it is important that all people involved not be delayed. Does your calculation involve the possibility of delays?
Your calculation is based on averages: 212 flights over a full operational day. Reality as the March 22 snapshot shows is somewhat different. First, it doesn’t account for the two daily rush-hour schedules: morning and evening.
The Ward’s Island ferries begin operating at 6:35 a.m. and run every half-hour until 9:20 a.m. from and to the city carrying the majority of commuters. Vehicles often travel on these boats as well. The evening rush hour boats operate from 4 p.m. to 7:15 p.m. and carry even more vehicles. The numbers of passengers on several of the boats in each rush hour necessitate two buses, not one. Therefore, rather than a single bus crossing one runway as you have calculated, reality, or practice as Mr. Berra observed, calls for at least two buses and service vehicles, more along the lines of a small convoy crossing two runways during the busiest times of the day.
These are the busiest times of the day for the airport as well. The March 22 snapshot of Porter flights shows 43 of the 94 daily departures and landings, or 45%, operating during the two rush hour periods on Runway 08/26. Currently, that works out to 43 flights in 6 hours. With an extra 118 flights (212 projected – 94 current) a likely number is 95 (45% of 212). If we assume that each take-off and landing is spaced evenly, then each crossing, whether a single bus or small convoy, has 3 minutes and 47 seconds to get across 90 metres of runways, at least mathematically. These figures do not include Runway 15/33 which may or may not accommodate private business commuter planes between Porter flights and Taxiway D.
Again, reality is something else. Go to Porter’s flight status page www.flyporter.com/fly2/Travel/FlightStatus?culture=en-CA and chart the current arrival and departure times. You will find flights booked for the same landing or take-off times: POE 405, POE 509 and POE 248 all at 09:00. There are 13 such instance on March 22. Look at the website at the end of the operational day and you will find discrepancies as to scheduled and actual times of departures and arrivals. In other words, planes come as best they can to a fixed schedule but with no guarantees. Add the vagaries of island winter weather and you will find that the 3 minutes and 47 seconds allowed to cross the two runways does not exist. Reality, not a mathematical model, rules in the real world.
At the risk of sounding alarmist, I will add one more factor to the equation: a busload of school children. These are kids who live in the waterfront condos and further afield. In many cases, their parents are well-placed, articulate people who have status and influence. To believe they will acquiesce to having their children bussed across busy runways twice daily is to be naive. Furthermore, I have no idea of the cost of liability insurance for a risk like this if indeed an insurer would offer such coverage. As well, I’d be surprise if a board of directors, even the TPA board of directors, would sanction such an operation.
Joe, if you can take these logistical considerations into account and find a non-mathematical way of reviving the dead horse that CAIR has prematurely declared DOA, I will be the first to examine it.
On your second point, the comparison of Toronto Islands and PEI with regards to fixed links, I’m not sure how to answer it. I’m not aware of any studies that show one way or another if PEI residents feel their island has lost its charm or uniqueness or if they now feel like mainlanders. You state that it is unlikely they do. I would be interested to read any reports upon which you base your opinion. Please direct me to them.
Finally, as for your position that under certain circumstances the only argument against a tunnel is a philosophical one, I shall comment on your observations in a subsequent posting.
Bob Kotyk
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