The recession is causing a major shakeup in the aviation industry.  The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) in Britain has published  statistics for 2008 showing the first annual fall in airline passenger numbers in 17 years.  The first three months of 2009 show numbers falling even further.  In the United States there has been more that 5% drop in passengers between 2007 and 2008 and it is likely that Canadian airlines have experienced a similar drop.

What does this mean for Porter Airlines?  That is the question that people living along Toronto's Waterfront are asking themselves.  We know that Porter now has 8 aircraft and will expand to 18 planes by the end of 2009.  That is more than double the capacity.  We also know that Porter is focusing on domestic flights.  They are flying to Thunder Bay, the Halifax flights have resumed and the company is adding more flights to Ottawa and Montreal. 

Expansion of routes to U.S. cities seems open to question.  The Newark flights, we are told, are never full and the Chicago flights appear to be a near disaster.  One account said there were only three paying passengers on a flight.  The Porter executives must be wondering whether they can ever make money on flights to Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, Cleveland and other U.S. cities within flying distance of the Q400.  With more planes it means there will be more seats to fill, more fuel to buy, more salaries to pay, more landing fees, and on and on it goes.

Can Porter can survive the recession?  But there is an even more fundamental question.  What is the passenger demand of the Island Airport?  We know that City Express in the late 1970s had about 700,000 passengers and they did not survive.  Porter must have more passengers than that.  We will know when the Toronto Port Authority publishes its 2008 financial report.  But can they put more "bums on seats" and fill the new planes.  It will be very difficult.

Robert Deluce remains confident.  This morning his smiling picture is in a Harry Rosen advertisement along with a heading, "The Visionary."  The vision is an expanded airline which will result in more air pollution, noise, traffic and upset people in the community.  That is hardly visionary. 

Bill Freeman