Can Porter and the Island Airport survive the recession?

Actually, John, the fact that the airline industry is losing gobs of money is very important to the future of the Island Airport.

You have made the point a few times that you believe the federal government intends to keep the Island Airport open.  There is no evidence that this is the case.  We know the Harper Conservatives want to help Porter and have gone out of their way to keep the Island Airport open, but will they subsidize a losing operation forever? 

If Porter cannot be financially successful then the marketplace has clearly spoken.  Before Porter came along the airport was losing about $5 million a year.  A subsidy from the city covered that shortfall and, city politicians made it clear when the billion dollar lawsuit was settled in 2002, that they would not subsidize the airport any longer.  It was Mel Lastman who said that, not David Miller. 

If Porter fails then immediately the airport would begin to lose millions of dollars a year.  It is very unlikely that any federal government will be willing to subsidize the Island Airport in the future to the tune of millions, especially if the major users are a number of private planes.  I think even the Conservatives would say enough is enough.  We are not going to throw good money after bad.

I also think it is highly unlikely that another airline will come into the Island Airport if Porter fails.  If Porter can't make it work, with the experience of Robert Deluce, millions of dollars in start-up capital, and a $20 million gift from the federal government, then no one can make it work.

So yes, the success of the Porter and the success of the airline industry is absolutely central to the future of the Island Airport.  Only time will tell the story, but I have to tell you the more I hear about near empty planes flying to places like Chicago and Newark, the more I doubt that Porter can make a success of it.  The recession is hurting every airline in the world and Porter will not be exempt.

Bill Freeman

 

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