The CADORS record keeping system lumps together missed approaches/overshoots. In either case the pilot takes an action that results in not landing as planned. The records show there are a number of reasons: from planes on runways, that have to be avoided, to bird strikes to bad weather. Whatever the reason, the action is taken to avoid a potentially unsafe condition.

It stands to reason that the number of missed approaches/overshoots at an aerodrome is directly related to the number of potentially unsafe conditions, whether it be an aircraft on the runway interfering with an incoming aircraft about to land or variable wind conditions that have the potential to interfere with the landing – wind shear for example. Otherwise, a pilot would not be required to avoid a potentially unsafe condition.

Studies on airplane accidents cite an unsafe condition and pilot error as the cause of the majority of accidents. The CADORS record on missed approaches/overshoots indicate potentially unsafe conditions. So far, there have been no pilot errors.

CADORS also shows that there were only 13 missed approaches/overshoots at the island airport from July 7, 1995 until October 25, 2006. That’s 13 in 11 years, with 9 involving general aviation and 2 involving carriers: 1 for Jazz and 1 for Air Ontario.

Since October 26, 2006 to the present, there have been 47. That’s 47 in the 2 ½,years since Porter Airlines commenced service. Of those 47, nine have involved general aviation. Porter Airlines, a carrier, has been involved in the rest - 38 out of 47 or 81%.

Retaining an airport, whose location and features represent a significant number of risks, in order to accommodate routine medical flights that could be directed to Pearson, where sequencing may present a problem, ignores another record. As cited above, the majority of accidents involve an unsafe condition and pilot error. Consider that moving medical flights to Pearson involves one potential hazard, whereas, keeping them at the island involves an increasing number of potentially hazardous incidents.

Porter Airlines with its eight planes accounts for 81% of the missed pproaches/overshoots since it began operating. By this year’s end, Porter will be operating 18 aircraft or up to 120 flights a day. If the past is anything to go by, the number of potentially hazardous events at the island will increase.

Bob Kotyk